Research

Publications and Accepted Work

1. The Impact of Public School Choice: Evidence from Los Angeles’ Zones of Choice

   Campos, Christopher, and Kearns, Caitlin

   Quarterly Journal of Economics 139(2), 2024

   Abs PDF BFI Research Brief AEI Podcast BFI Podcast The 74 Fordham Institute Marginal Revolution Good on Paper Podcast

   Does a school district that expands school choice provide better outcomes for students than a neighborhood-based assignment system? This paper studies the Zones of Choice (ZOC) program, a school choice initiative of the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) that created small high school markets in some neighborhoods but left attendance-zone boundaries in place throughout the rest of the district. We study market-level impacts of choice on student achievement and college enrollment using a differences-in-differences design. Student outcomes in ZOC markets increased markedly, narrowing achievement and college enrollment gaps between ZOC neighborhoods and the rest of the district. The effects of ZOC are larger for schools exposed to more competition, supporting the notion that competition is a key channel. Demand estimates suggest families place substantial weight on schools’ academic quality, providing schools with competition-induced incentives to improve their effectiveness. The evidence demonstrates that public school choice programs have the potential to improve school quality and reduce neighborhood-based disparities in educational opportunity.

2. Independent Contracting, Self-Employment, and Gig Work: Evidence from California Tax Data

   Bernhardt, Annette, Campos, Christopher, Prohofsky, Allen, Ramesh, Aparna, and Rothstein, Jesse

   ILR Review 76(2), 2023

   Abs PDF Slides

   We use de-identified data from California personal income tax returns to measure the frequency and nature of independent contracting work in California. We identify independent contractors by the presence of a Schedule C on the tax return and/or the receipt of a Form 1099 information return. We estimate that 14.4% of California workers aged 18-64 in tax year 2016 had some independent contracting income; over half of these do not have traditional jobs generating W-2s and get all of their earnings from independent contracting. Workers with low earnings are significantly more likely to earn independent contracting income and to rely primarily or exclusively on that income. We explore the characteristics of independent contractors and their distribution across family type, geography, and industry.

Working Papers

1. Who Benefits from Remote Schooling? Self-selection and Match Effects

   Bruhn, Jesse, Campos, Christopher, Chyn, Eric, and Tran, Anh

   Under Review

   Abs PDF BFI Research Brief

   We study the distributional effects of remote learning. Our approach combines newly collected data on parental preferences with administrative data from Los Angeles. The preference data allow us to account for selection into remote learning while also studying selection patterns and treatment effect heterogeneity. We find that the average effect of remote learning is negative (-0.14σfor reading; -0.17σfor math). Notably, we also find evidence of positive learning effects for children whose parents have the strongest demand for remote learning. Our results suggest that an important subset of students currently sorting into post-pandemic remote learning benefit from expanded choice.

2. Social Interactions, Information, and Preferences for Schools: Experimental Evidence from Los Angeles

   Campos, Christopher

   Under Review

   Abs PDF PAP ZOC Video (English) ZOC Video (Spanish) Fordham Institute

   This paper measures parents’ beliefs about school and peer quality, how information about school and peer quality affects parents’ school choices, and how social interactions mediate these effects. In a field experiment, parents were randomly given information on school quality and peer quality, with varying proximity to other parents who received similar information. Results show that parents typically underestimate school quality and overestimate peer quality. When both parents and their neighbors received information, preferences shifted toward higher value-added schools. These findings suggest substantial information spillovers, leading to increased enrollment in effective schools. Enrollment in more effective schools leads to improved socio-emotional outcomes not captured by standardized exams. This evidence suggests that the intervention did more than alter educational pathways; it also played a critical role in shaping important developmental aspects of students’ lives.

Work in Progress

1. Parents’ Beliefs and Valuations of Academic and Socio-Emotional School Effectiveness

   Campos, Christopher, Neilson, Christopher, and Sielfeld, Martin

   Draft available upon request

   Abs

   We design information modules that provide parents in Los Angeles with a rich environment to learn about different aspects of the school choice process. These include rich pedagogical lessons on school effectiveness, including academic and socio-emotional effectiveness. After teaching parents about the different dimensions of school effectiveness during in-person information sessions, we elicit their beliefs about schools in their choice set, experimentally estimate their beliefs about the production function, and experimentally estimate their preferences. Parents tend to underestimate both academic and socio-emotional effectiveness. Parents’ beliefs about the production function of each vary, with teacher quality being more important for academic effectiveness but unimportant for socio-emotional effectiveness. We find that parents tend to have approximately equal valuation over academic and socio-emotional effectiveness, underscoring the importance of the less-studied latter notion of school quality. Last, we simulate forthcoming school closure policies and quantify the welfare implications of policies that target only one aspect of quality.

2. Major Choice and Gender Gaps

   Bucarey, Alonso, Campos, Christopher, Contreras, Dante, and Munoz, Pablo

   Draft available upon request

   Abs

   This paper studies how college major returns, preferences, and market design contribute to gender gaps relevant to policy. To study why gender representation gaps exist in high-earning majors, we first leverage data on major preferences to show that majors causally affect both earnings and fertility, with notable cross-field heterogeneity and modest gender differences. We then find that monetary returns largely drive men’s choice of major, while women prioritize family considerations. Our estimates suggest that 17-24% of the college gender earnings gap is due to these differing priorities, and we find suggestive evidence that variation in gender norm progressivity plays a prescriptive role in governing behavior. Finally, we evaluate policy alternatives that target representation gaps by simulating counterfactual scenarios within a centralized assignment system. Introducing small gender-based quotas modestly reduces the gender earnings gap without significantly affecting overall efficiency.

3. School Quality and Segregation: Evidence from an Information Provision Experiment

   Bruhn, Jesse, Campos, Christopher, and Chyn, Eric

   Analysis in Progress

   PAP
4. Does the Housing Market Value School Effectiveness? Evidence from Zones of Choice

   Campos, Christopher

   Analysis in Progress

Other Publications

1. Understanding Which Prices Affect Inflation Expectations

   Campos, Christopher, McMain, Michael, and Pedemonte, Mathieu

   Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

   Abs PDF

   Inflation expectations have an impact on one’s economic behavior. We show that the inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers are predicted by very different prices. While professional forecasters weigh prices similar to the consumer price index, consumers seem to focus on prices they see more often, such as those for food and new vehicles. These are also prices that have seen disproportionally high volatility since the onset of the pandemic. We argue that heterogeneity in the importance of component-specific inflation can have relevant economic implications and disproportionate effects on consumers’ inflation expectations that can, in turn, affect economic behavior.